Book Review: Sway by Ori and Rom Brafman

Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior is a very interesting book. Basically, the book is about why we do certain (re: dumb) things.  Brafman brings up a lot of interesting studies (including a few sports examples, which I'll get to in a bit) and he talks about how we categorize things and people and how we're biased to our initial diagnosis, even in the face of evidence.

The Brafman's writing is approachable (nothing too jargony) and the book is a fairly quick read (it clocks in at just under 200 pages).  In fact, I wish Sway was a little longer and more fleshed out.  Brafman tends to jump around ("to better understand problem X, we must first learn about some seemingly unrelated study") and I could've gone for some more info.

Brafman discusses a study which found that NBA's players playing time depends on his draft status (don't tell Adam Morrison):

Staw and Hoang found that the variable most responsible for an NBA player's time on the court - "above and beyond any effects of a player's performance , injury, or trade status" - was his draft selection. Even after controlling for all other factors, in a given season "every increment in the draft number [e.g., getting drafted ninth instead of eighth] decreased playing time by as much as 23 minutes."  Incredibly, draft order continued to perdict playing time all the way through a player's fifth yaer in the NBA, the final year measured in the study.

But draft order had even deeper inplications.  Being picked late in the draft increased a player's likelihood of getting traded to another team and ultimately affected the longevity of his career.  "A first-round draft pick," found Staw and Hoang, "stayed in teh league approximately 3.3 years logner than a p layer drafted in the second round."

Now remember, Staw and Hoang had isolated draft order from all the other variables. That means that if you have two players with the exact same toughness, scoring and quickness record, the one in picked earlier in the draft would get more playing time, be much less likely to be traded, and have a longer career than his counterpart, who-although he turned out to be just as good-had the misfortune of being picked later in the draft.

Let's pause here.  Are Staw and Hoang saying what we think they're saying? If we think aobut this rationally, once a player is picked, his draft order shouldn't matter. After all, coaches and mangers should only be interested in a player's level of productivity on the court and his overall fit within the team.  Once the draft is over, the draft number becomes an arbitrary statistic that gives no indication of how he'll actually perform on his new team.

But here's where value attribution meets up with a sway called diagnosis bias-our propensity to label people, ideas, or things based on our intial opinions of them-and our inability to reconsider those judgments once we've made them.  In other words, once a player is tagged as a "low pick," most coaches let that diagnosis cloud their entire perception of him.  It's as if each athlete wears a permanent price tag on his jersey.  [Pages 69-70 in the hardcover]

This seems crazy but it kinda makes sense.  I'd imagine that a player drafted in the first round is going to get more chances to prove himself or figure it out because he's been deemed to have "first round talent" (and who knows, maybe he can get even better!).  I wonder if draft status affects NFL players in the same way (I imagine it does, but not quite to the same degree).

The book is filled with a whole bunch of examples like this.  Another interesting idea is that we have the tendency to follow the group, even if we think/know the group is wrong unless someone else speaks up.  The thing is, the someone else speaking up doesn't even have to be right themselves, they just have to speak out against the group (basically make it OK to contradict the masses) and then we feel comfortable doing the same.

Anyways, Sway was a fun, quick, read and I highly recommend it.  The examples were quite interesting and it really makes you think.

News that would've excited me three weeks ago

Chris Paul has demanded a trade:

When Paul was quoted a few weeks ago as saying he'd be open to a trade if the Hornets aren't committed to building a championship team, it was only a small hint as to the size of the chasm that exists between the franchise and its cornerstone player. Paul, in fact, has put into motion an aggressive exit strategy that will accelerate in the coming weeks, and his clear intention is to be traded before the start of the 2010-11 season, a person with direct knowledge of his plans told CBSSports.com Wednesday.

"He wants out," said the person, who has been briefed on Paul's strategy but spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss it publicly. "He wants to play with another superstar. He wants to follow LeBron's model of teaming up with other great players."

Paul's list of preferred destinations consists of the Knicks, Magic and Lakers, and members of his inner circle already have sent word to the Hornets of his desire to be traded to one of those teams, sources say. If Paul has his way, he's played his last game in a Hornets jersey.

There's been some talk on twitter that the Cavs should go after Paul. I mean, I'd love watching the guy but A) I don't see how it's possible and B) I'm not sure he'd be any happier in Cleveland than he is in New Orleans.

I find it humorous that Paul's trade demand comes after he joined LeBron's marketing group, LRMR. Did he watch The Decision and think "I want to get in on THAT!"? This trade demand will do wonders for his reputation. (And funny how this comes out AFTER LeBron bolts for Miami's beaches. No chance he'll end up in Cleveland).

I don't have a dog in this race, but I'd rather Paul end up in Orlando rather than New York or Los Angeles. I'd pretty much cry if he ended up with Kobe and the Lakers. The Knicks would be kinda neat, seeing Paul run D'Antoni's 'seven seconds or less' system, but I don't know how good they'd actually be.

But Orlando... Chris Paul teaming up with Dwight Howard would definitely make the basketball dork inside me quite happy. Teamed with Paul, Howard would end up shooting like 80% from the field while getting roughly 85 dunks a game... Paul made Tyson Chandler look good... with Howard?? Yikes. Pick and roll of doom.

Not the way this season was supposed to go

Kobe Bryant, on winning his fifth NBA title:

It means I have one more than Shaq.

Ugh.

Game 7 wasn't the prettiest basketball game ever played, but I sure enjoyed the heck out of it. Both teams fought hard and did everything they could. Ron Artest saved the Lakers' collective bacon with his strong offensive play in the first half... and then practically put the game away with a late trey.

Gotta hand it to the Celtics, they played their asses off. They could never sustain their lead (the Lakers are just sooo big) and they couldn't afford a poor shooting night from Ray Allen.

All that being said, the highlight of the night could very well be Ron Artest's postgame interview. Awesome.

This is a steep price?

If were actually a realistic scenario, the Cavaliers would be stupid not to do this:

At some point, Raptors general manager Bryan Colangelo will likely catch on to Bosh's objective and try to trade him.

As many fans realize, he would be a perfect candidate for the Cavs' front court, which needs an overhaul. He could move in at power forward next to center Zydrunas Ilgauskas. During crunch time, Bosh can shift over and play the "5" spot.

But before anyone gets too excited about the possibility, it's going to be extremely difficult to pry Bosh loose from the Raptors. The Cavs don't have a ton of assets.

In the best-case scenario, the Cavs could deal forward/center Anderson Varejao (in a sign-and-trade), guard Delonte West and contract fodder for Bosh. The Raptors might even want a draft pick.

That's a very steep price for a player who could become a free agent after one season.

Steep price? Really? A power forward with limited offensive game, an undersized shooting guard, contract fodder (Ben Wallace? Boobie?) and a late round draft pick? All for Chris fucking Bosh? Yes, please.

The Cavs would have LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Mo Williams. At that point you just plug in role players. And if he gets paired up with Mr. James, I doubt Bosh is going anywhere.

Well, that sucked

Not sure what to say. That sucked ass.

I know some people are gonna wanna blame the refs. And don't get me wrong, the refs were not good. Those early fouls on Anderson Varejao really really (really really) hurt.

But the refs aren't the guys missing free throws. They aren't the guys leaving shooters wide open. And they aren't the.. well, maybe they were standing around watching LeBron too.

The Cavs were out hustled, out rebounded and simply out played. Dwight Howard dominated (40 pts, 14 boards, 4 assists) and Orlando's role players continued to step up. Mickael Pietrus continued to play out of his mind (14pts, 4-7 3pt).

Obviously, this was a bad matchup for the Cavaliers. Delonte West is simply too small to guard Turkoglu. The Cavs don't have the low post presence to make them pay for playing a power forward who doens't rebound. And when the fourth and fifth options are knocking down seemingly every shot, it's gonna be hard to win.

I seriously thought the Cavs were gonna comeback with the way they started the second half. Mo and Delonte hit some shots and the Cavs had cut the lead to 10 about 6 minutes into the 3rd quarter. But they couldn't get enough stops to make a difference. The Cavs shot 44% from the floor and 45% from behind the arc. The offense wasn't great (LeBron had an off night) but it was passable. It was all the little things that beat 'em; they lost the battle of the boards 47-34, they allowed the Magic to shoot 46% from the floor and they shot a pathetic 11-22 from the foul line.

They flat-out got beat.

In the end, I have to wonder if dominating the first two rounds made a difference. On one hand, I think it's fairly obvious that Orlando grew up over the course of these playoffs. This Magic team had an epic second round match-up with the Celtics that went the full seven. They blew out the Celtics at home.

The Cavs did not have the experience of playing in those late game situations. This was basically Mo Williams' first real playoff series. He had the big Game 5 and he played pretty well in Game 6 too (17 pts, 6-12 FG, 3-4 3pt). Hell, I actually thought he should've taken the ball away from LeBron in the second half.

But at the end of the day, playing a few nailbiters won't make Delonte West any taller or Zydrunas Ilgauskas any faster.

(I'm interested to see what Orlando does against the Lakers. The Lakers have Kobe, Ariza and Odom to harass Turkoglu and Lewis (they won't be able to just shoot over 'em) and Pau Gasol could really punish Lewis inside. Plus, Andrew Bynum is big and quick enough (if anyone really is) to guard Howard one-on-one. One part of me would be pissed if Orlando got to the Finals and shot like shit. But another part would laugh my ass off.)

WHEW!

LeBron is good. Jesus... 37-14-12. Wow.

I'm a little concerned about the 1 v 5 offense, but at least he was catching the ball around the stripe. He can take one dribble and get to the rim. And if he settles? It's a jumper he's been knocking down all series (and it's not a long trey).

They have to play faster for the whole game. And I'd STILL move LeBron to Turkoglu. He's just too big for Delonte. Hopefully they can continue the early offense and allow LeBron to expend some energy guarding Hedo. I simply don't think they win in Orlando without a defensive switch.

Also, this whole "well, if LeBron is doing that then what can you do? we'll just shake his hand after the game" goes both ways. Yes, LeBron was insane down the stretch, scoring or assisting on Cleveland's last 31 points. And if you're Orlando, yes, you just gotta tip your hat and say good game.

But the Magic have had these moments throughout this entire series. If Mickael Pietrus keeps hitting ridiculous shots, Rafer Alston is banking treys and Dwight Howard goes 14-19 from the stripe... well, you gotta tip your hat too.

Yes, the Cavs "barely" won with James going nuts down the stretch. But the Magic dropped 17 treys in Game 4 and had to win in overtime. These games have all been really close! These are both really really good teams!! It's going to take an extraordinary effort to advance to the NBA Finals.

Things feel a bit better, right? You believe they got a shot in Game 6, no? Before the series started, if I had asked you if you thougth the Cavs would have to win a road game to move on, you probably would've agreed, no? The Cavs were going to have to win a game in Orlando to get to the Finals.

Now, they've got no choice.

Game 5

First off, I have a new podcast up where we discuss Games 4 and 5 of Cavs/Magic.

I'm fairly confident about tonight's game. The Cavs played well in Game 4 and while they've lost three games thus far, they've had a chance in every contest. The Cavs should be able to come out and defend their home court.

I'm fairly optimistic about the Cavs chances in this series. I know it's a long shot, but hell, does anyone remember two years ago? Tribe-Red Sox? Indians up 3-1, C.C. and Carmona were the next two starters... What did Boston do?

Look, I know we're Cleveland. When our team is up 3-1, we lose. When our team is on the other end, it's too big of a hole.

I'm not as sour on the current situation as others and I think the Cavs have a fairly decent shot of playing one more game at home before they're done.

The big thing to look for tonight (for me anyways) is to see who they have LeBron defending. If it were up to me, I'd stick him Hedo Turkoglu. West has done a decent job, but he's too short and it allows Hedo to see (and shoot) over him (especially on the move). Plus, when the Cavs transition to defense, they often have a hard time picking up Rafer Alston. Just stick LeBron on Hedo and be done with it. Sure, they can still switch, but it's better giving up height AND not guarding a guy.

We'll see...

Nervous yet?

I keep going back and forth. On one hand, I see a team that is a last second heave away from being down 0-3. They've blown leads at home, they've stood around and watched LeBron and they seem slow to make adjustments. The Magic have played extremely well and they, at times, look dominant.

On the other hand, this group is a Rashard Lewis jumper away from being up 2-1. Yes, they've blown leads at home but they got those leads for good reasons (hey, remember when LeBron schooled Mickael Pietrus in the post? That was neat). Have things looked bad at times? Sure, but it's not like no one has ever come back from a 2-1 hole. At some point I also think that Orlando has played about as well as they can play. They aren't going to look any better than they have already. Maybe I'm grasping at straws here, but it's fairly obvious what areas the Cavaliers need to focus on. How much more could you expect out of Lewis, Howard and Turkoglu?

But am I nervous about tonight? Lord yes. While I'm not freaking out over being down 2-1, I'm definitely not comfortable with the idea. I don't want to even contemplate being down 3-1.

You know what's not helping my comfort level? Mo Williams making guarantees.

He better hope that the Cavs win Game 4, because if they continue at their current level of play (including -and especially- Williams), he's gonna come off like a jackass.

Mo hasn't played particularly well (17 pts, 32% FG, 25% 3pt) and he just put a lot of pressure on himself. If this ends well, Mo will come out of a this a Cleveland folk hero. Maybe the Cavs and the city needs this bravado, even if it rings a bit false. False bravado has got to be better than utter despair, right?

The fact of the matter is, this series hinges on the play Mo Williams. The Orlando supporting cast (if you can even call it that) around Dwight Howard has been superb. Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis are the reason Orlando owns this 2-1 advantage. If Williams can step up and provide James with some help (not just knocking down open looks, but by initiating the offense and forcing/allowing LeBron to play off the ball) the Cavs will be in a much better position.

For better or worse, I keep reminding myself that this is basically Mo Williams's first 'real' playoff series. Sure, he made it with the Bucks, but they knew going in that they had no shot against the Pistons. We all know the ease of which the Cavs walked through this year's first two rounds. The Magic are battle tested. They've already blown games at home and won a tough fight against the defending champs. This is Mo's first taste of a real playoff series. That elbow from Anthony Johnson may have been the best thing to happen to him.

I'm fairly optimistic that Williams will fight through his struggles. I've seen the confidence he has in his abilities throughout this entire season (and even in his days in Milwaukee). Mo has knocked down big shots throughout the year (at home AND on the road) and when he gets going, he's extremely hard to stop.

Plus, if Mo can take a little more control of the offense (LeBron doesn't have to initiate every possession) maybe it allows LeBron to D-up Turkoglu or Lewis for the entire game (instead of floating off of Rafer). As much as it feels weird to say, LeBron is going to have to do a little bit more; if the Cavs are going to win, they'll have to stop at least one of Orlando's Big Three (Howard, Lewis & Turkoglu) and LeBron (Defensive POY runner-up) is their best bet.

As bad as things have looked, a win tonight puts this thing at 2-2 heading back to Cleveland. Seriously, before the series started, if I would've asked to you to guess the series record at Game 5, would 2-2 really be that far fetched?

And for all you message board commenters already proclaiming this "the biggest choke job in the history of Cleveland sports"- go jump off a fucking cliff. Way to be helpful you self loathing douches. No wonder our teams choke; a little adversity and we all tweak out. Can't you wait til the series over before you start feeling sorry for yourself?

It's the goddamned playoffs. This is a team equipped with the best player on the freaking planet. And if you thought that they were going to waltz through this ECF in 4 or 5 games, you're simply ignorant about the NBA.

Are they in a dog fight? Hell yes. Can they play better You betcha. But being down 2-1 is not an insurmountable hole. A win tonight and we're back to square one (and a loss could put the entire city on suicide watch).

We'll see what happens. (Hopefully Mo and West won't simply be used as spot up shooters. Mo has to run the offense and West particularly has to drive the ball to the rim. Delonte can't be afraid of Dwight Howard. And of course, I'd love to see LeBron post up and maybe even be used in pick and rolls).

About last night

First of all, I'm kinda pissed that the Clippers got the number 1 pick. Really? The Clippers? I know some Cavs fans were worried about Washington snagging that pick (and Blake Griffin) but I would've been OK with it. At least if Griffin goes to Washington or Oklahoma City things would be interesting.

Adding Griffin to Caron Butler, Gilbert Arenas and co. would've been nice. Or you put him in Oklahoma City and you at least have a shot of building a contender around Kevin Durant before he could walk.

But the Clippers? With Memphis at number 2? Stern is losing his touch.

As for the game, the Nuggets showed why they're the Nuggets. They outplayed the Lakers for most of this game. They were more aggressive, they attacked the Laker defense and they showed why people think they could win this series. However, they missed a ton of free throws and made some bone head plays down the stretch (K-Mart fouling Kobe on a reach in, George Karl having Anthony Carter inbound the ball against a much bigger defender) allowing the Lakers to come back and steal the game.

I will say this: it was nice to see Carmelo Anthony on a big stage. I know everyone wants a Kobe-LeBron Finals, but LeBron-Melo wouldn't be bad either. Hell, I actually think that'd be a more intersting matchup. This whole Kobe-LeBron "rivarly" seems sorta forced to me. At least LeBron and Melo are actually friends (and the same draft class, close in age, etc).

Trade Talk

From SI.com:

The Cavaliers spent the the final hours in search of a skilled big man to enhance their size advantage over the champion Boston Celtics, who entered Wednesday with a two-game lead over Cleveland in the crucial race for the East's No. 1 seed. As proud as Cleveland has been of its balanced rotation and experienced depth around conference MVP LeBron James, the Cavs couldn't afford to ignore the value of their hole card -- the expiring $13.8 million salary of eighth man Wally Szczerbiak.

In recent days the Cavs have investigated possible trades for Miller as well as Antawn Jamison (which was rebuffed by the Washington Wizards), Marcus Camby (who thus far had been made unavailable by the Los Angeles Clippers) and Richard Jefferson (who can be acquired from the Milwaukee Bucks as they're pressed by the luxury tax) in hopes of seizing a frontcourt advantage over the Celtics, who have no expiring contracts or an expendable salary valuable enough to be dealt. Could they find their midseason version of Rasheed Wallace (who helped the Pistons win the 2003-04 championship) or Pau Gasol (who shot the Lakers to the NBA Finals last season)?

As much as they were concerned about disrupting team chemistry, the larger issue driving the Cavaliers had to be the continuing speculation that James will depart in 2010. They must do everything possible to win a championship -- not only to exploit his presence while they have him, but also to convince him that his best hope of winning multitple titles is to re-sign with Cleveland.

I've never been a huge Richard Jefferson guy, but he would help this team. He's a big guard who can defend (and has been through some playoff battles of his own). I'm not sure what the Cavs would have to give up (if it's just Wally, than okie-dokie). However, RJ is expensive, making $14.2 million next season and $15.2 the next (though 10/11 is an early termination year).

ESPN has more:

The Bucks got some more momentum Wednesday evening in their quest to find some salary relief for Richard Jefferson.

Sources say the Bucks had discussions with the Cavs about a possible Jefferson-for-Wally Szczerbiak swap. The Cavs have gotten much more active over the past 48 hours, making pitches to Washington for Antawn Jamison and the Clippers for Marcus Camby. However, the Wizards and Clippers have both given the Cavs the stiff-arm.

Camby is still the guy I really want. God I hate the Clippers.

Some more from ESPN:

A source who has been in the know for years tells me that Joe Smith is keeping his fingers crossed that the Thunder do not find another trade for him now that he's back in Oklahoma City.

Smith, the source said, would like to do a buyout and then sign with the Boston Celtics as this season's version of P.J. Brown.

No Joe! Come on, Boston!? Really? Lame.

Also, I found this really interesting (emphasis mine):

Finally, this question, after the Tyson Chandler trade was rescinded: Is there any chance that Chandler could be traded again by Thursday?

One GM, speaking on condition of anonymity, told me he spoke with the Thunder and thought they were extremely conservative in their diagnosis of Chandler. Although he hadn't seen the medical evidence, he felt, based on his conversations with the Thunder, that the team might have overreacted to the center's turf toe issue.

Yes please. Hey New Orleans, you guys wanna save some money? We got a sexy white guy making $13 million just waiting to be traded. We'll take that young, underachieving, athletic big man off your hands, no problem.

Gonna be a fun (and more than likely) uneventful day for Cavs fans.

Trade Stuff

Looks like Ferry has been talking to the Wizards:

One is Washington Wizards forward Antawn Jamison. A veteran who can play both inside and out with high character and a willingness to come off the bench (he is a former Sixth Man of the Year), he represents the top of the class. According to a league executive, the Cavs recently made pitches for both Jamison and Wizards' forward Caron Butler.

The Wizards have made it known they do not want to pay the luxury tax next season and Jamison is at the start of a four-year, $50 million contract. However, Washington has numerous options to reduce payroll over the next year besides moving one of their stars. This would be a trade with their biggest enemy, which is why it still seems to be a long shot.

I'm hesitant to add Jamison, for age and salary reasons. But he would fit in extremely well. As for Butler... dear God, if Ferry can pry him away then I will send the man flowers every day for the next year. Butler would be perfect next to Bron-Bron.

Now, Windy also throw out this little nugget:

The Washington Post reported Tuesday that the Wizards are considering trading their first-round draft pick this year to help with the problem.

Adding Jamison's salary (and Etan Thomas/Darius Songaila) and the Wizards pick would be ridiculous. Getting a top ten pick would be amazing.

However, ESPN doesn't think a DC-Cleveland connection will happen:

The Wizards, sources said, quickly rebuffed Cleveland's offer of Wally Szczerbiak's $13.8 million expiring contract for former All-Star forward Antawn Jamison.

One source with knowledge of the Wizards' thinking said Tuesday that team president Ernie Grunfeld is determined to continue resisting interest in Jamison and Caron Butler because the club has renewed hope that injured starters Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood will play in a small handful of games before the season ends, affording the Wiz an opportunity to evaluate the full team they hoped to field this season.

With Arenas and Haywood both having missed the entire season so far, Washington has cratered to a nightmare record of 12-42.

I'm not entirely surprised by this (as the Cavs are just offering cap relief), but at the same time, how long can the Wizards run with this same core? I mean, three straight first round exits and a terrible record this year. They look completely lost, so let's hope they do something stupid (like giving Cleveland Caron Butler or a first round pick).

Both ESPN and Windhorst think Ferry is targeting Marcus Camby (which shouldn't be a surprise):

The Cavs, meanwhile, are expected to shift their focus from Jamison to making a final pitch (or three) for Clippers center Marcus Camby, after being convinced in this week's talks that the Wizards are not interested in parting with the 32-year-old in spite of their luxury-tax concerns.

The Clippers have been saying for weeks that Camby and rookie guard Eric Gordon are their only untouchables in trade talks, but history says Clippers owner Donald Sterling is bound to be tempted by the opportunity to remove Camby's $9.7 million from next season's payroll if presented with Szczerbiak's contract on deadline day ... unless L.A. can move Chris Kaman's longer contract first.

and:

Another player on the radar is Marcus Camby, the Los Angeles Clippers' defensive center who has two years left on his contract. The Clippers are often in cost-cutting mode and have other strong big men. Coach and GM Mike Dunleavy has constantly told media members and other teams that Camby isn't on the market.

On Tuesday, though, a Western Conference general manager said every Clipper -- with the exception of rookie Eric Gordon -- was available, even as other general managers said Dunleavy's stance had not changed.

I'd love the Camby-man. He's a short term solution, but he'd plug a lot of holes (mainly, the fouth big man/veteran hole) and he won't mess up any 2010 scenarios. I just think that the Clips will demand Hickson, which Ferry will (rightfully) balk at.

For those of you who wanted Brad Miller (anyone? Bueller?), he's (thankfully) off the market:

The Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings have reached tentative agreement on a trade sending Andres Nocioni, Drew Gooden and Cedric Simmons to the Kings for Brad Miller and John Salmons, ESPN.com.

One source said the Bulls players were pulled off the team bus Wednesday afternoon and were told they had been traded.

The deal also involved a third team. The Bulls agreed to send Michael Ruffin to Portland, and the Trail Blazers would ship Ike Diogu to the Kings, sources told ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard.

What the fuck are the Bulls doing? Do they even have a plan? I love how they were in talks for Stoudemire and ended up with Brad freaking Miller. Salmons is decent, but he's paid too much ($10 mil over the next two years- which isn't terrible, but not great). The Cavs were in talks for Miller, but the Kings insisted on Hickson. HA!

At this point, I have no idea what will happen. Stoudemire being traded looks less and less likely (though if Sarver really wants to cut salary, with the Bulls trading Gooden....), Camby is on the Clippers (so who knows) and it looks like Washington is going to stand pat.

Though, despite the bleak news, I guess we should hold out hope:

"The Cavs are definitely being super aggressive," one Eastern Conference executive said. "They see this economic frenzy out there with so many teams trying to get off money and lower their payrolls like New Orleans did [by trading Tyson Chandler] and they want to capitalize. If they can spend now to help them keep LeBron later, they're going to do it."

So there ya go.

FYI- the deadline is 3pm on Thursday (though I'd wait til 5 to make sure).

What's next?

Hmmm....

The rumor mill has been churning after the Williams deal. The Cavs could be talking to the Knicks about a big man.

Veteran shooting guard Michael Finley re-signed with San Antonio, but the Cavs wanted to add him to their crowded backcourt.

A source said the Cavs could have gotten forward/center Dan Gadzuric from the Bucks in the Williams deal, but declined.

The Knicks.... Randolph? Curry? I wouldn't think so.... David Lee? Mayhaps...

I really don't think the Cavs are done. I'm guess there will at least be one more minor deal before training camp officially starts up.

And I fully expect them to make a move the deadline.

Non-Cavs fans believe that LeBron is the MVP

First it was KG, then it was Kobe, but LeBron is finally getting some love.

Kelly Dwyer:

And, to anyone who takes the game seriously, "best player" should mean "M-V-P!"

It's not a huge edge, but it's decisive enough: James has Bryant licked in scoring per game (30.3 to 28.2), assists (7.5 to 5.4), rebounds (8.1 to 6.0) and shooting percentage (48.6 to 46.6). Bryant shoots better from long range (35 percent to 30), and has James' number from the line, but so does Kyle Korver. Otherwise, they're even on steals and turnovers, and James blocks nearly twice as many shots.

James may play two more minutes per game, but he still owns a decisive edge in the per-minute numbers, and has to do his damage on a slow-down team (20th in the NBA in possessions). Kobe has a chance to pad his stats (not that he is, kindly read that carefully) with about five more possessions per game on the Lakers. That's significant.

But that's a mere nuance to national TV types and multi-sport columnists who want to hand the mantle over to Kobe just because his team is winning more. Bryant was working his tail off for years just trying to get a sorry bunch of Lakers up around the .500 mark, and he shouldn't be handed an MVP just because Andrew Bynum can ball now and the Grizzlies decided to hand the Lakers Pau Gasol.

Meanwhile, James is just destroying people in Cleveland. Pulling in more rebounds on a team that owns the boards even without him (there's not a lot of stray rebounds to go around) and racking up assists on a team that can't shoot straight (44.1 percent, 24th in the NBA).

His defense isn't on par with Kobe's, but it's not far off, and it's still pretty damn good. Certainly not bad enough for Bryant to overcome being outscored, outassisted and outrebounded by LBJ. And while both are studs in the clutch, LeBron is better. He significantly outscores, outassists and outrebounds Kobe when it matters.

Worse, James is going to get burned by voters who will credit him for MVPs likely won from 2009-2019 and hand it to Kobe just because he's playing "unselfish" basketball." No, Kobe's playing the same brand of competitive basketball he always has, just for a championship-level team. If he wasn't "selfish" in 2005-06 and 2006-07 then the Lakers win 30 games. Replacing a Chris Mihm with a Gasol shouldn't mean James should be denied.

More Kelly:

* Just for giggles, try entering into an argument over who is having the best season among Manu Ginobili, Tracy McGrady, Paul Pierce or Kobe Bryant. I'm not even going to get into the per-minute numbers, loyal readers, so understand that this particular bullet point is for the punters:

Both Ginobili (in far less minutes than Kobe), McGrady, and Pierce score less, rebound a bit less, and dish fewer assists than Kobe. They are offering, per game, about 80 percent of what Kobe offers. Try insisting that any of the three have been better this season than Mr. Bryant, and you'd be rightfully laughed off.

And yet, those who still consider Bryant to be having the better season than LeBron have no issue overlooking the fact that Bryant scores less, shoots worse, rebounds worse, assists worse, and plays on a team that averages fewer possessions than James' team. To them, Kobe's better because ... well, he just is.

* Much in the same way I'm not going to hand LeBron the MVP based on the two times the Cavs beat the Lakers this season, I'm not going to give Kobe the award for his play on Sunday. Kobe played much, much better than LeBron did, but I'll leave making snap judgments based on one or two-game sample sizes to those who (I hope) cannot stand themselves after doing so.

Going further, I'm not going to hand James an MVP award merely because his team is 0-6 when he sits a game out. The 76ers would probably drop six out of six with Andre Miller on the pine. That shouldn't sway anyone.

* The, "LeBron plays in the East!" cry is getting a little old. LBJ averages 29.8 points, 47.4 percent shooting, 7.1 assists, and 7.9 rebounds against Western teams. When James plays, the Cavs are 16-11 against the West. Kobe averages 29.7 points, 48.8 percent shooting, 6.5 boards, and 5.4 assists (again, in games with more possessions) against the West -- awesome -- but for some reason lets his averages go to relative pot against the East.

You'd think it'd be because of the Lakers blowing Eastern teams out, but Kobe actually averages more minutes per game against Eastern squads than against Western outfits, and contributes less. Weird.

Bill Simmons:

Q: Why is everyone handing Kobe the MVP and counting me out? I'm carrying a lousy team and averaging nearly a triple-double every night. I play hard every game. I've become a really good rebounder and weak-side shotblocker at crunch time. I lift my offensive game at the end of every game and score with 2-3 guys guarding me. When I drive to the basket, I can go left or right and guys bounce off me like superballs. I always make the right pass. I always make the right play. Every time I'm on national TV, I put on a show. Basically, I became who you wanted me to be ... and if that's not enough, I'm only 23. Do you realize I'm the same age as MJ during the 63-point game at the Garden? That's right, I'M THE EXACT SAME AGE AS MJ DURING THE 63-POINT GAME!!!!!!! And you're all taking me for granted already??? Yeeeesh. No wonder MJ played baseball for two years.
--LeBron J., Cleveland

SG: Let's get one thing straight: MJ played baseball for two years because David Stern secretly suspended him for 18 months for gambling and told him to come back for the '95 playoffs. Get your facts straight. As for your other points, you're right -- you and Chris Paul are the leaders for MVP at the three-fourths mark because you're both having superlative seasons, as is Kobe, with the difference being that neither of you has Phil Jackson or a great bench, and in your case, you don't have even a borderline All-Star on your team. It's you and 11 role players. Switch you and Kobe and you'd be doing just as well, but he'd be gritting his way through every Cavs game on cruise control and leaking fake trade rumors through his agent. I also can't forgive Kobe for what happened during the first 15 games, when he moped around and pushed for a trade. Does someone do that during an MVP season? I say no.

I know I'm extremely biased, since I'm a huge Cleveland homer... but I've watched every game the Cavs have had this year and LeBron is playing out of his fucking mind. How anyone can watch him play on a regular basis and not come away thinking he's the MVP is beyond me. Plus, once this team gets used to each other, I could very easily imagine James averaging a triple double for the last month or so of the season. He's already putting up ridiculous numbers, I can't wait til everyone is healthy.

However, I'd be shocked if LeBron actually wins it. The Cavs will be lucky to get 50 wins in a weak conference and that's gonna work against him. Kobe will get points for the Lakers record (and the fact that they play in LA) and his defense (which comes and goes).

Kidd to Dallas

Wow, the Nets got a sweet haul (notice the bold):

The deal -- salvaged from talks on a three-way trade with Portland that developed and fizzled quickly two weeks ago -- has Dallas sending 24-year-old point guard Devin Harris, veteran swingman Jerry Stackhouse, the expiring contracts of center DeSagana Diop and swingman Devean George and guard Maurice Ager to New Jersey for Kidd and forward Malik Allen.

Sources say Dallas will also send the Nets the league-maximum $3 million, the Mavs' first-round draft pick this June and a first-rounder in 2010.

That seems to a be a ton of stuff to give up for Kidd. Even with this:

The Nets are expected to buy out Stackhouse's contract immediately, which could enable him to re-sign with Dallas if he waits 30 days. "I feel great. I get 30 days to rest, then I'll be right back," Stackhouse said. "I ain't going nowhere."

I call shenanigans!

Anyways, I like Harris a lot and I wouldn't have traded the 24 year old for the 35 year old Kidd (but that's just me). I also wouldn't have traded Diop when the Suns just got Shaq (and when the Lakers have Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, the Spurs have Tim Duncan, the Rockets have Yao, etc).

So what's the market like for Mike Bibby and Ron Artest at this point? I mean, the Grizzlies gave up Gasol for Kwame Brown's expiring deal while the Nets got a Kings ransom for Kidd. At this point, I can see either of those two guys traded for practically anything.

Lakers get Pau Gasol

This is a great trade for LA. They got Kobe a legitimate low post talent in Gasol (who should work out great in the triangle). They didn't trade anyone from their core rotation other than Kwame Brown and they held on to Jordan Famar.

I'm not sure if this catapults the Lakers into the front runners for the title, but this does give them a pretty badass starting 5 when healthy with Fisher, Kobe, Odom, Gasol and Bynum. That's pretty solid (especially with guys like Famar and Walton coming off the bench).

The main thing I'm looking for is the domino effect. The Gasol trade could spur other teams into making some moves. Dallas or Denver may make a stronger push for Jason Kidd (who's sweepstakes the Lakers are now out of). The Kings may move either Mike Bibby or Ron Artest (I wouldn't mind taking a 3 month flier on Artest- IF thats what it takes to get Bibby AND if Artest declines his player option, as he's expected to do).

As for the Cavs, I still don't see them landing Kidd (or Bibby, if the Kings still want to unload Kenny Thomas). Even with the Lakers out of the picture, the Cavs simply don't have a lot of pieces that are attractive at this time. Plus, I think next year/summer is the time where you'll start seeing crappy teams full of nice players being paid like great players, to look to dump salary (like Michael Redd or Joe Johnson).

Bibby Still a Possibility

The rumor that never dies... still hasn't died.

Brian Windhorst says the Cavs are still pursuing Mike Bibby:

At this moment, there is nothing serious going on between the Cavaliers and Kings, but make no mistake, there probably will be. Cavs General Manager Danny Ferry has made at least three serious attempts within the last year to acquire Bibby. And the signs are there that he soon might be trying again.

As you may or may not know, I'm not particularly fond of these Bibby rumors. Windhorst explains:

It's not clear just why the Cavs are so enamored with Bibby. They are in desperate need of a true point guard, and Bibby certainly is one. He is, however, not a good defender, a Cavs priority, and his offensive stats, especially his shooting percentages, have been falling off in recent years. He hasn't played a game this year while recovering from a thumb injury, though he should be back in the next week. As the Kings have started rebuilding, there have been whispers around the league that Bibby has become a problem in the locker room.

Again, not a trait the Cavs desire. The Cavs, though, think that they have some special ties and information on Bibby. Ferry and Bibby share an agent, David Falk, and no doubt there has been indirect information sharing. Cavs coach Mike Brown never has coached Bibby but has some close friends who are close with Bibby and his friends and family. They've done their homework.

Some members of the Cavs organization think the thumb injury has slowed him down for two years. Now that it's fixed, some think that he has a lot left in the tank. They also look at how strongly he played in the playoffs and coexisted on a roster that had other stars when the Kings were in their glory years with Chris Webber and Peja Stojakovic. Also, Bibby is on a maximum contract, but he is only signed through next season, which would allow the Cavs to retain flexibility if a Bibby/LeBron James marriage didn't work.

A year ago, Kings President of Basketball Operations Geoff Petrie was determined to get back a starter-quality point guard if he traded Bibby. That was the problem — the Cavs didn't have one to trade and couldn't find one in a three-way deal that Petrie wanted. That has changed somewhat with newcomer Beno Udrih showing promise with the Kings in Bibby's absence. Petrie has also made it known since then that his goal is to clear salary-cap space for the summer of 2009.

All of which brings the Cavs back into the game without the need of a third team. Nearly the Cavs' entire roster has contracts that will be up after next season, giving them all sorts of trading pieces if the Kings make that a priority. The Kings would be interested in moving a player signed past 2009 in addition to Bibby. Most likely it would be Kenny Thomas, who is signed for two more seasons and can't get off the bench.

If the Cavs want Bibby bad enough, they do have the ammunition to give the Kings what they want. It would take a package that would probably involved a talented big man such as Drew Gooden, a prospect such as Shannon Brown or a draft pick and contracts expiring in 2009. The Cavs have numerous ones, especially Eric Snow, Damon Jones or even both.

It might not seem like a lot for a player such as Bibby, but it would free the Kings of millions in salary commitments, get them a bonafide starting power forward and set them up for rebuilding.

Maybe the Cavs know what they're getting into. I just worry about his thumb injury hampering him. Bibby's strength is his offense and if he can't shoot well... As for Bibby's poor defense, I don't particularly care about that, mostly because Cavs point guards have been getting burned all year, so it's not like they'd be turning a strength into a weakness.

The Cavs do need to make a move, just to shake things up, if nothing else. Most of this team has been together for 2-3 years, they could use some new blood. I don't mind them trading Gooden, as I'm becoming less and less enamored with him as the season goes on (seriously, watch this guy at the defensive end sometime, ridiculous). Plus, he is only signed for another season after this, so the Cavs would retain some of their cap flexibility.

I dunno though, the Cavs would be paying four players eight figure salaries (James, Z, Bibby and Hughes) with only one of them (James) being an All-Star. That just doesn't seem right to me.

And so it begins....

Kill me now:

Josh Markovic (Mimmiville): Can we finally come the realization the KG is much better than Tim Duncan?

John Hollinger: That annoying 4-0 deficit in championship rings is putting a bit of a dent in your case.

Yup, 6 games in and the debate is settled. Why wait 'til the playoffs, let's just stop the season now and give the championship to the Celtics. I mean, they've beaten Washington, Toronto, Denver, New Jersey, Atlanta and Indiana, who can't these guys beat? Could this team challenge Chicago's 72 wins?

Stop it.

Kevin Garnett is not better than Tim Duncan. The '07-'08 Celtics shouldn't even be in the same conversation with the '95-'96 Bulls (let alone have their own comparison page on ESPN.com).

They're a good team who's gotten off to a hot start. They'll win somewhere between 46-56 games this year. They aren't going to win 60 and they aren't going to sniff 70.

On a similar note, the second part (Eastern Conference part 2) of Bill Simmon's four part NBA preview posts today and I'm interested to see A) how many back handed compliments he gives the Cavaliers and B) if he's gone off the deep end with the Celtics or if he's kept his wits about him. BTW, Part 1 was quite enjoyable and it reminded me of how much I really enjoy his NBA stuff when he's not making up shit about LeBron.

Summer League Signings

I know, not a big deal, but I still find this stuff interesting (especially the local flavor). The Cavs added former Ohio State center Terence Dials, West Virginia forward Kevin Pittsnogle and Akron star forward Romeo Travis (who went to St. Vincent-St. Mary with that LeBron fellow).

Do I expect any of these guys to make the final roster? Not really. But seeing these guys on the roster is intriguing, especially Pittsnogle (Dials and Travis are both kinda undersized).

Don't Count on Mike Bibby

With the season over, everyone is talking about what the Cavs should do this upcoming offseason. Obviously, the need for a point guard is a major issue and many people are throwing Mike Bibby's name out there.

No.

Would the Mike Bibby we know and love (the guy who hit big shots versus the Lakers) look good in a Cavalier uniform? Of course. The problem is, I'm not sure the Cavs would be getting that guy.

But last year Bibby posted career lows in FG% and assists. And that FG%? A Larry Hughes-esque 40.4%. He's 29 years old, which isn't over the hill by any means, but it's not a good sign when you're approaching 30 and your number take a dip. He also doesn't play defense.

And oh, by the way, he'll make more money than Larry Hughes over the next two seasons.

I probably sound a bit harsh. Could Bibby have simply had a bad year? Sure. There was a wrist injury that bugged him all year long which could explain his poor shooting (and the poor shooting could explain the lack of assists, etc). And is he a better point guard than anyone on this roster? of course. But it worries me to go off trading for a guy with an eight figure salary... coming off his worst season.

However....

IF Bibby opts out of his contract (he has an early termination option) and the Cavs can sign him to a more team friendly deal (remember, LeBron's extension kicks in this summer as well) then I'd be all for it. But Bibby doesn't want to risk the (insane amount of) guaranteed money (I mean, er... he wants to give it a shot with his new coach) so the only way he'll be available is through a trade.

And if you think that, since the Cavs and Kings were close to a deal at the deadline, they'll be able to easily put something together now, you're wrong. I'll let Brian Windhorst explain:

There seems to be some belief out there that the Cavs and Sacramento Kings will re-start talks over point guard Mike Bibby, but in reality the time might have passed. The Kings wanted some expiring contracts in the deal; that was a large component of the original talks. With the season over, the Cavs no longer have the same assets to offer. Never say never, but don't assume it's much of an option.

So let's calm down on the Bibby trade scenarios. What Sacramento wanted, the Cavs no longer have. Plus, part of me feels like trading for Bibby and his contract mid-season for a playoff push is OK. But in the offseason, when time isn't of the essence and you can afford to work a bit more, taking on Bibby isn't the best move.

I think it's obvious that the Cavs need to make some moves this summer. They need to upgrade the point guard position. I personally think that Hughes needs to be dealt (I think it''ll be good for all parties involved) and I wouldn't be shocked if he asked for a trade (again?). I'm not saying Bibby isn't a possibility, but I don't think it's the slam dunk move that everyone thinks it is.

You Take Greg Oden

Bill Simmons tallies up a score for the Oden-Durant debate and (unsurprisingly) Durant comes out on top. This isn't that big of a deal and I'm not really harping on Simmons as much as people like him.

He loves Durant. It's pretty obvious that he thinks Durant should be the top pick. That's fine. But here's the thing, Simmons ends the column with this gem:

Face it: No GM has the testicular fortitude to pass up a potential superstar center, not even for someone as potentially game-changing as Durant. If you want to compete from now until 2020, take Oden. Simple. But as soon as the Blazers pass on Durant, he will instantly be more dangerous. Because from that moment on, he'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder. As Karl Malone, Gilbert Arenas, Carlos Boozer and others have taught us, a draft slight is a scary thing: It's a contract-year push that never ends. Each season, you want to stick it to everyone who didn't believe in you all over again. (Note: The term for this phenomenon is "anti-Darkoism.") So the Sonics might one day look as if they were the ones who caught the break on May 22. I just don't know.

So lemme get this straight, if you're drafting first and you want to be competitive for the next 10+ years, you take Oden. But Durant is more dangerous?

Look, everyone tells us that the league is getting faster, the Suns and Warriors are the future and blah blah blah blah. But I'd just like to point out that, since 1999, the NBA Champion has looked like this: Duncan-Shaq-Shaq-Shaq-Duncan-Detroit (against Shaq)-Duncan-Shaq-Duncan.

Durant may be the next Jordan (as Kobe and LeBron before him). That is wonderful. He may very well dominate the league and be a Hall of Fame player. But the league is full of players 'like Jordan'; long athletic swing men are littered across the NBA map (we got guys in Atlanta, LA, Cleveland, Houston etc).

Meanwhile, Oden compares favorably to exactly two NBA players (and by 'compare' I simply mean being projected as a dominant center) and those guys happen to each own four rings each and at least one of them has appeared in every NBA Finals since 1999.

So ya. Pass on Greg Oden.